!VAR HAGENDOORN

Hidden Unemployment and the Jobless Recovery

There's currently a lot of talk about what has been termed the jobless recovery in the U.S. The problem is that many jobs at the lower end of the job spectrum may represent a hidden form of unemployment.

In supermarkets in the U.S. assistants will pack your stuff for you. In Tokyo one shop assistant will open the door for you, one will wrap whatever you bought so beautifully you feel guilty opening it again, one person will take your payment and another will give you your change. In India when you enter a toilet a person will hand you a tissue to dry your hands in exchange for a few rupees.

In London at nearly every underground entrance there is at least one attendant. In Hong Kong underground platform attendants check whether anybody tries to enter the train after the signal that the doors are about to close has sounded. In Berlin platform managers give trains the green light to start riding.

In New York upon entering a restaurant you are greeted by a 20 something girl who came fifth in the first round of the Miss South Dakota beauty pageant and dreamt of becoming a model. She will stand there the whole evening greeting those people who have a reservation and turning away anyone else who doesn't. One waiter will take your order, another waiter will remove the glasses and the cutlery and replace it with identical glasses and cutlery, yet another waiter will ask if you want any wine, if you do another person will come to explain the wine list to you, yet another waiter will bring you bread. Throughout the evening one person will compulsively refill your glass of water every five minutes while a maitre d' will pace through the restaurant asking every guest whether everything is fine.

However, these employees don't really DO much of a job. In a restaurant someone needs to prepare the food and someone needs to bring it to your table, but is it really necessary for someone to welcome you when you enter the restaurant? And if so, does it have to be another person than the person waiting on tables?

Jobs at the lower end of the job spectrum are the easiest to cut. The cheapest German supermarkets, Aldi and Lidl, don't even unpack many of their products to save on shelving.

When the economy picks up again companies may postpone filling in the jobs that were cut. Hotels may discover that guests return even if there is no one to open the front door or to carry their suitcases to their room. Restaurants may discover that customers can park their car themselves and that there is no need for valet parking. Companies may thus find that some jobs did not actually represent a vacancy. They may also discover more efficient, capital intensive, means to achieve the same result. A theatre may acquire lockers, which is a one-off investment, for people to store their coats and bags, rather than employ attendants to guard them. What's more, consumers too may shift their behaviour. People may rapidly adjust to the fact that they need to pack their groceries themselves. They may even realize that it is more environmentally friendly to bring their own bag or box. And so, once they have disappeared these jobs may be gone for good.