"Nuclear War: A Scenario" by Annie Jacobsen ranks among the most terrifying and unsettling books I've ever read. Based on interviews with dozens of military and academic experts and countless declassified documents, Jacobsen provides a minute-by-minute account of the events following a nuclear missile attack.
The scenario Jacobsen explores involves a bolt-out-of-the-blue decapitation strike on Washington DC by North Korea using a single intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Additionally, in this scenario North Korea launches a short-range ballistic missile targeting a nuclear power station in California and detonates a high-altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) device above the U.S., creating an electromagnetic shockwave that destroys all electricity-powered devices. As a worst-case scenario, I found this combination a bit excessive: a single nuclear missile strike would have been sufficient to demonstrate the devastating consequences of nuclear war.
What struck me most is that complete devastation could unfold in less than an hour. The North Korean ICBM would reach Washington DC in little more than 30 minutes. Within this narrow timeframe, the U.S. government would need to decide upon a military response while evacuating the President, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and others in the presidential line of succession to safety. There would be no time to evacuate Washington DC itself.
While it's reassuring to know that the U.S. military maintains constant high alert status, it's equally disconcerting that all nuclear powers can launch attacks within minutes. I find it particularly troubling that nuclear-powered submarines continuously patrol the oceans, capable of launching nuclear strikes at any moment.
Other scenarios exist, of course. India could launch a nuclear strike against Karachi, prompting Pakistan to retaliate against Delhi, Mumbai, and Bangalore. However, these alternatives don't alter the book's central message: the devastation would be enormous, and the resulting fallout would essentially end civilization in the Northern Hemisphere.
"Nuclear War: A Scenario" reinforces the critical importance of nuclear deterrence. Yet as Jacobsen soberly notes, deterrence only works until it doesn’t, a chilling reminder of our precarious global situation.